Mysterious China

In new network on March 10 report (Qiu Guan history) the statistical data that publishs according to national statistic bureau announces date, china the CPI Feburary and PPI will be announced now. Current,ugg mayfaire boots, most orgnaization is forecasted, in Feburary CPI or will appear 6 years to come to first degrees enjoy growth, this makes clear shrink pressure is being increased. To this, yi Gang of assistant president of Chinese Central Bank also points out, the pressure that price of near future China is down is very apparent, but China is current with the model shrink to still have very big difference.

　　 Majority is forecasted say CPI will enjoy growth now in Feburary

Data of economy of PPI, CPI was announced 10 days Feburary. Each orgnaization was published in succession a few days ago pair Feburary of CPI forecast, CPI will fall into the interval that lose a value to already did not have be concerned about. On one hand, as a result of taller Feburary last year base effect, make become warped end element is negative worth. On the other hand, the food price abidance after the Spring Festival fall after a rise also is pulled moved CPI be issued to lower levels. The monitoring result of Department of Commerce shows, annulus of edible produce price was compared in Feburary drop 2.8% . And the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture shows, case decides countrywide produce trade price base index by January 158.5 rise slightly for the 159.2(Feburary with the price was 100) 2000. Majority is forecasted think, of CPI compared to the same period amplitude is in - 1% to - 2% between. In the meantime, base effect still will pull bottom CPI in later period, predicting CPI will be in a few the middle of a month maintain sequel negative worth.

According to data of national statistic bureau, the CPI this year January drops than December 2008 0.2% , since starting 30 months new low; The PPI that regards CPI as banner index glides compared to the same period 3.3% , achieve since March 2002 the biggest fall. Research center of economy of industry of institute of economy of Beijing industrial and commercial university carries out director Zhou Qingjie to express,ugg short boots, the CPI Feburary goes up the likelihood is adjacent 0, appear even negative growth, mixed March appeared April the possibility of negative growth is larger, at the appointed time namely on real significance ” shrink ” .

　　 Chinese economy is faced with shrink risk?

The judgement of Li Deshui of former director of bureau of statistic of committee member of countrywide the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, country to Chinese economic situation is hopeful. He is in the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference of 5 whole nations uses the viewpoint that two words generalized him on 11 2 conferences press conferences last week: I think ground of one is assured and bold with justice says, china did not produce what banking crisis at all. Still think bovine gas says dye-in-the-woodly, chinese economy won’t, do not have more enter decline. But when at the same time he accepts media to interview, also express, deflationary risk of China still is some, the likelihood is in short-term in. Will appear more possibly than consistent quarter CPI, PPI negative growth.

The expert thinks, the negative growth of CPI appears in a few month this year only, annual CPI is possibility still exists. This is on one hand glide quickly as a result of what industry raises a cost reduced supply, unless domestic and international demand continues to drop quickly, furnish otherwise decrease CPI can be held in the palm on certain level; On the other hand, if at present relatively loose credit policy lasts, also can increase the thrust that CPI goes up. And Li Deshui of former director of national statistic bureau also emphasizes, CPI, PPI appears the circumstance of negative growth won’t last very long.

And whether deflationary to Chinese economy problem, su Ning of assistant president of Chinese Central Bank thinks, chinese economy is connected without experience at present shrink, but existence understands the pressure that shrink. He thinks, the fall of domestic CPI price, because domestic significant demand decreases,be on one hand bring about, on the other hand of price of international heavy goods drop, conduct secondhand to home.

And easy program of an assistant president of Chinese Central Bank also the point of view with same hold. Yi Gang says, get the price of international heavy goods that includes crude oil to wait inside steep fall, and outside need to drop cause effect of total slow down in demand, the pressure that price of near future China is down is very apparent, but China is current with the model shrink to still have very big difference.

Yi Gang points out, typical deflationary need is had ” two features ” and ” accompany ” . “Two features ” it is prices falls continuously, and credit and monetary supply drop, “One is accompanied ” it is to point to accompany economic depression, namely GDP enjoys growth. From connect the research that shrink to look to many countries, historical data supports this one decision criteria basically. But from China current condition looks, although prices is in,individual month may be in future become warped negative growth appears below end element influence, but credit and monetary supply growth are rapidder, economy this year also hopeful comes true of 8% add fast, because of after this two conditions and connect typically shrink to still differ very far.

　 China can be denied lower interest should shrink to connecting

The expert points out, appear when CPI when negative growth, the Central Bank may lower interest rate or deposit reserve is led, will stimulate consumption. But to this, different view thinks, although of CPI drop considerably push tall effective interest rate, but from official of near future Central Bank make known his position to look, the possibility that the near future lowers interest is very little still.

Easy program of assistant president of Chinese Central Bank expresses, strong relieve a garrison of Central Bank near future is connected shrink, basically be for preventive price further be issued to lower levels, the range that prevents prices to enjoy growth is too big. Yi Gang says, we have sufficient monetary policy tool to should shrink to connecting. He points out, at present of Chinese monetary policy conducting basically is unobstructed, successive a few months increases credit high even if one is reflected, predict credit still can be added high Feburary. And the propulsion that builds as money market, interest rate commercializes the development of the process, and structure of processing of financial orgnaization company and inside those who accuse is ceaseless and perfect, the money conducts a mechanism more will expedite.

Yi Gang still expresses, of China although still have a space,lower interest, but the space is not large,arrival 5389, 0 interest rate are not China’s current best choice.